The Changing Racial and Indigenous Limerick of the U.S. Electorate

The upcoming 2020 presidential ballot has drawn renewed attending to how demographic shifts across the United States have changed the limerick of the electorate.

For this data essay, we analyzed national and state-level shifts in the racial and ethnic makeup of the The states electorate between 2000 and 2018, with a focus on key battleground states in the upcoming 2020 election. The assay is primarily based on information from the U.S. Census Bureau'southward American Community Survey and the 2000 U.S. decennial demography provided through Integrated Public Utilise Microdata Series (IPUMS) from the University of Minnesota.

See here to read the data essay'due south methodology for farther details on our data sources.

Eligible voters refer to persons ages eighteen and older who are U.S. citizens. They make upwards thevoting-eligible population orelectorate. The termseligible voters,voting eligible,the electorate andvoters are used interchangeably in this report.

Registered voters are eligible voters who take completed all the documentations necessary to vote in an upcoming election.

Voter turnout refers to the number of people who say they voted in a given election.

Voter turnout rate refers to the share of eligible voters who say they voted in a given election.

Naturalized citizensare lawful permanent residents who accept fulfilled the length of stay and other requirements to become U.S. citizens and who take taken the adjuration of citizenship.

The termsLatino andHispanic are used interchangeably in this report. Hispanics are of whatsoever race.

References toAsians,Blacks andWhites are single-race and refer to the non-Hispanic components of those populations.

Battlefield states include Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Northward Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These states were identified by Pew Research Center using ratings from a diverseness of sources, come across the methodology for more than details.

In all 50 states, the share of not-Hispanic White eligible voters declined betwixt 2000 and 2018, with 10 states experiencing double-digit drops in the share of White eligible voters. During that aforementioned period, Hispanic voters have come to make upwards increasingly larger shares of the electorate in every state. These gains are particularly large in the Southwestern U.S., where states like Nevada, California and Texas accept seen rapid growth in the Hispanic share of the electorate over an 18-twelvemonth flow.1

These trends are also peculiarly notable in battlefield states – such as Florida and Arizona – that are likely to be crucial in deciding the 2020 election.2 In Florida, two-in-x eligible voters in 2018 were Hispanic, nearly double the share in 2000. And in the emerging battleground state of Arizona, Hispanic adults made up well-nigh 1-quarter (24%) of all eligible voters in 2018, up 8 percentage points since 2000.

To exist sure, the demographic composition of an area does not tell the whole story. Patterns in voter registration and voter turnout vary widely by race and ethnicity, with White adults historically more likely to be registered to vote and to turn out to vote than other racial and ethnic groups. Additionally, every presidential election brings its own unique set of circumstances, from the personal characteristics of the candidates, to the economy, to historic events such as a global pandemic. Still, understanding the changing racial and ethnic composition in key states helps to provide clues for how political winds may shift over time.

Black, Hispanic and Asian registered voters historically lean Democratic

The ways in which these demographic shifts might shape electoral outcomes are closely linked to the singled-out partisan preferences of different racial and ethnic groups. Pew Research Center survey data spanning more than two decades shows that the Democratic Party maintains a wide and long-standing reward amongst Blackness, Hispanic and Asian American registered voters.3 Among White voters, the partisan balance has been generally stable over the past decade, with the Republican Party holding a slight reward.

All major racial and ethnic voter groups lean Democratic, except Whites

National exit polling data tells a similar story to partisan identification, with White voters showing a slight and adequately consistent preference toward Republican candidates in presidential elections over the terminal 40 years, while Black voters have solidly supported the Democratic contenders. Hispanic voters have as well historically been more likely to support Democrats than Republican candidates, though their support has not been as consistent as that of Black voters.4

These racial and ethnic groups are by no means monolithic. In that location is a rich diversity of views and experiences within these groups, sometimes varying based on country of origin. For case, Pew Research Center'south 2018 National Survey of Latinos institute that Hispanic eligible voters of Puerto Rican and/or Mexican descent – regardless of voter registration status – were more than likely than those of Cuban descent to identify as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Political party (65% of Puerto Rican Americans and 59% of Mexican Americans vs. 37% of Cuban Americans identified as Democrats). A bulk of Cuban eligible voters identified as or leaned toward the Republican Party (57%).

Amongst Asian American registered voters, at that place are also some differences in political party identification by origin group. For case, Vietnamese Americans are more likely than Asians overall to identify equally Republican, while the opposite is true amidst Indian Americans, who tend to lean more Democratic.

Higher voter turnout among White and Black voters in presidential elections

Given these differences inside racial and ethnic groups, the relative share of different origin groups within a specific state can bear upon the partisan leanings of that state's electorate. For example, in Florida, Republican-leaning Cubans had historically been the largest Hispanic origin group. Still, over the past decade, the more Democratic-leaning Puerto Ricans have been the state's fastest-growing Hispanic-origin grouping, and they at present rival Cubans in size. At the same fourth dimension, in states similar California and Nevada, Mexican Americans, who tend to lean Democratic, are the dominant Hispanic origin group.

Partisan alignment does not tell the whole story when it comes to voting patterns. Voter turnout rates – or the share of U.S. citizens ages eighteen and older who cast a ballot – likewise vary widely across racial and ethnic groups. White adults historically take had the highest charge per unit of voter turnout: About two-thirds of eligible White adults (65%) voted in the 2016 election. Black adults have as well historically had relatively high rates of voter turnout, though typically slightly lower than White adults. At that place was an exception to this pattern in 2008 and 2012, when Black voter turnout matched or exceeded that of Whites. By contrast, Asian and Hispanic adults accept had historically lower voter turnout rates, with about half reporting that they voted in 2016.

White and Black adults are as well more likely than Hispanic and Asian adults to say that they are registered to vote.

Non-White eligible voters accounted for more than three-quarters of total U.S. electorate growth since 2000

The non-White voting population has played a large role in driving growth in the nation'southward electorate. From 2000 to 2018, the nation's eligible voter population grew from 193.4 million to 233.7 meg – an increase of 40.3 million. Voters who are Hispanic, Black, Asian or another race or ethnicity accounted for more than three-quarters (76%) of this growth.

Most of the growth in the electorate since 2000 has come from Hispanic, Black and Asian eligible voters

The substantial percentage point increment of voters who are non White as a share of the state'south overall electorate was largely driven by second-generation Americans – the U.S.-built-in children of immigrants – coming of age, as well as immigrants naturalizing and becoming eligible to vote. The increment has been steady over the past eighteen years – from 2000 to 2010, their share rose by 4 percentage points (from 24% to 28%), while from 2010 to 2018, their share farther grew past five points (up from 28% to 33%).

Hispanic eligible voters were notably the largest contributors to the electorate's ascension. They alone deemed for 39% of the overall increase of the nation'due south eligible voting population. Hispanic voters made upwardly 13% of the state'south overall electorate in 2018 – nearly doubling from 7% in 2000. The population's share grew steadily since 2000, with similar percentage point growth observed betwixt 2000 and 2010 (3 points) and 2010 and 2018 (iii points).

The Hispanic electorate's growth primarily stemmed from their U.Due south.-built-in population coming of age. The 12.iv one thousand thousand Hispanics who turned 18 between 2000 and 2018 deemed for 80% of the growth among the population's eligible voters during those years. The grouping's sustained growth over the past two decades volition make Hispanics the projected largest minority grouping among U.S. eligible voters in 2020 for the outset time in a presidential election.

Asian eligible voters as well saw a significant rising in their numbers, increasing from 4.six million in 2000 to x.3 million in 2018. And similar to Hispanics, their nearly 2-decade growth has been relatively consistent. The population'due south share in the electorate grew at similar rates from 2000 to 2010 and from 2010 to 2018 (1 point each). In 2018, Asian eligible voters made up 4% of the nation's electorate (upward from 2% in 2000), the smallest share out of all major racial and indigenous groups. Naturalized immigrants – a group that makes up two-thirds of the Asian American electorate – are the primary driver of the Asian electorate'south growth. From 2000 to 2018, the number of naturalized Asian immigrant voters more than doubled – from iii.3 million to vi.ix million – and their growth solitary accounted for 64% of the overall growth in the Asian electorate.

Despite notable growth in the not-White eligible voter population, not-Hispanic White voters nevertheless made up the large majority (67%) of the U.South. electorate in 2018. However, they saw the smallest growth charge per unit out of all racial ethnic groups from 2000 to 2018, causing their share to shrink by nearly ten percent points.

Shares of non-Hispanic White eligible voters take declined in all 50 states

The overall refuse in the shares of the non-Hispanic White eligible voter population can be observed across all states. (At that place hasn't been a decline in the Commune of Columbia.) While this tendency is not new, information technology is playing out to varying degrees across the country, with some states experiencing particularly significant shifts in the racial and ethnic composition of their electorate.

In total between 2000 and 2018, 10 states saw a 10 per centum point or greater pass up in the share of White eligible voters. In Nevada, the White share of the electorate fell 18 pct points over almost two decades, the largest drop among all l states. The decline in the White share of the electorate in Nevada has been fairly steady, with a comparable per centum point turn down observed betwixt 2000 and 2010 (10 points) and 2010 and 2018 (eight points). California has experienced a similarly sharp turn down in the White share of the electorate, dropping 15 per centum points since 2000. This has resulted in California changing from a majority White electorate in 2000 to a land where White voters were a minority share of the electorate in 2018 (60% in 2000 to 45% in 2018), though they notwithstanding are the largest racial or indigenous group in the electorate.

Latinos vote at a polling station in Los Angeles. (David McNew/Getty Images)
Latinos vote at a polling station in Los Angeles. (David McNew/Getty Images)

Even with declines in all 50 states, White eligible voters still brand up the bulk of most states' electorates. In 47 states, over half of eligible voters are White. The only exceptions are California, New United mexican states and Hawaii, where White voters business relationship for 45%, 43% and 25% of each respective state's electorate.

Every bit reflected on the national level, Hispanic eligible voters have been the main drivers of the racial and ethnic diversification of most states' electorates. In 39 states betwixt 2000 and 2018, Hispanic eligible voters saw the largest percentage point increase compared with any other racial or indigenous group. In three additional states – Alaska, Kentucky and Ohio – Hispanic voters were tied with another racial group for the highest increase. Five states that observed the largest growth in Hispanic shares in their electorates were California (11 percentage points), Nevada (10 points), Florida (9 points), Arizona (eight points) and Texas (8 points).

The number of Black eligible voters nationwide grew only slightly in the past 18 years. Even and then, Black voters saw the largest percentage point increase out of any other racial and ethnic group in iii states in the Southeast: Georgia (5 points), Delaware (iv points) and Mississippi (4 points).

As for Asian eligible voters, they saw robust growth in California (five percentage points), Nevada and New Jersey (4 points each) between 2000 and 2018. However, their share increases paled in comparison to the Hispanic electorate'due south growth in those states. Overall, Asians saw their shares increase in the electorates of every country except Hawaii, where their share dropped past iv percentage points. Still, Hawaii has the highest percentage of Asians in its electorate – 38% of all eligible voters in the state are Asian.

Racial and ethnic modify among eligible voters in battleground states

Equally the 2020 presidential election draws well-nigh, these demographic shifts are particularly notable in some key battleground states, where changes in the composition of the electorate could take an impact on balloter outcomes.5

Pace of racial and ethnic change varies widely across key battleground states

Nationally, Florida and Arizona saw the third- and quaternary-largest declines in the shares of not-Hispanic White eligible voters. The White shares of the electorate in those states each stood at about six-in-ten in 2018, down from most iii-quarters at the showtime of the century. Four other battleground states – Pennsylvania, Due north Carolina, Wisconsin and Michigan – besides saw declines in the share of White eligible voters betwixt 2000 and 2018, though to a bottom extent.

In Florida, a land that has been pivotal to every U.S. presidential victory in the last 20 years, the White share of the electorate has fallen xiii per centum points since 2000. At the same fourth dimension, the Hispanic share of the electorate has gone upwardly 9 points, rising from eleven% of eligible Florida voters in 2000 to twenty% in 2018. During this aforementioned period, the Blackness share of the electorate in Florida has increased two percentage points and the Asian share has increased by 1 point.

Arizona, largely seen equally an emerging battlefield country, has seen substantial alter to the racial and ethnic limerick of its electorate. Hispanic adults at present make up about 1-quarter of all eligible voters (24%), an 8-point increase since 2000.

Several battleground states take seen smaller – though still potentially meaningful – changes to the demographic composition of the electorate. In Pennsylvania, the White share of the electorate fell vii percentage points while the Hispanic share of the electorate rose 3 points from 2000 to 2018. And in N Carolina, a state that voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and previously went for Barack Obama, George Westward. Bush and Nib Clinton, the White share of the electorate cruel from 75% in 2000 to 69% in 2018. During the same time catamenia, the Hispanic share of the electorate rose to 4% (up 3 points since 2000) and the Black share of the electorate rose to 22% (upwards i betoken since 2000).

Demographic changes could continue to reshape the balloter landscape in future elections. While Texas is not currently considered a battlefield state, demographic shifts have led some to wonder if the land could go more competitive politically down the road. In 2018, iii-in-ten eligible voters in Texas were Hispanic – that's upward 8 per centum points since 2000. During that same time, the share of White eligible voters in Texas vicious 12 points, from 62% in 2000 to a bare bulk (51%) in 2018.